An old saying has it that, “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” It’s still true.
At the beginning of this year, my fearless forecast said this:
“Whatever happens in the global economy this year will be the major influence over what happens in e-Learning.
As we look ahead, this is shaping up to be the one undeniable fact about 2009, and it will drive what I believe will be three important trends in e-Learning:
- For Development: Shifts to cut costs and to improve productivity in development tools, in hardware used to create and support content, and in delivery channels;
- For Design: Accelerated evolution of learning strategy; and
- For Management: Pressure to improve the business process of e-Learning.”
That’s still my story, and I’m sticking to it, with a little elaboration. It seems to me that there are some sure bets, and there are some developments that we will all want to keep an eye on.
Sure bets
For most e-Learning practitioners, 2010 will be the same as 2009, with no significant changes in practice or tools. However, the need to cut costs will drive constant incremental changes in several areas.
Technology adoption
Practitioners will continue to experience pressure to get costs out of e-Learning. The area where management sees the most opportunity to cut learning costs is design and production. Expect this to keep on driving the use of rapid development tools and synchronous delivery. Also expect it to keep up the pressure on design, including the elimination of steps in the ID process. Video adoption might benefit from cost-cutting goals, except that video scripting and production require new skill sets, software, and equipment, and that video introduces new costs (talent) and concerns (copyright, distribution). Webcasting is a related technology that should also see increased use.
If you are interested in adding some slick effects to your video, without requiring a Hollywood budget to do so, see the section of the DemoFest Highlights Webinar 2009 (at http://www.elearningguild.com/content.cfm?selection=doc.1288#highlights) titled "Using Green Screen Video to add Personality to Online Courses."
Tools
Tool vendors will also be under increasing pressure, and some will suffer for their inability to adapt to changing demands. Most notable is the shift of high-cost applications to the Web/cloud. In most cases, this will involve substitution of tools: photo, video, and audio editing, for example. Most of the new editing tools are not yet as powerful as their desktop counterparts, but they are “good enough” for many purposes. More practitioners will also be looking for online authoring tools and learning management systems. We saw these applications begin emerging in 2009, and this is a trend that will definitely continue. Finding suitable online replacements for existing tools will continue to be complicated by security concerns, and by the vulnerability of the cloud to attack and service disruptions.
Practitioner skills
As e-Learning continues to supplement, augment, and replace traditional classroom-based instructor-led training, practitioners will need to improve their skill sets. This should be a part of the 2010 professional development plan for every instructor, instructional designer, application developer, and manager in every training department and learning activity. It is more and more difficult to justify the expense of separate staff groups or individuals who only design, only develop, or only teach. The same forces are also eroding at least some of the walls between the information technology (IT) and human resources (HR) groups. A major additional factor in this latter area is the emergence of mobile learning.
Developments to keep your eye on
There are four areas in which managers of training/learning departments will want to stay up-to-date. These are not going to be areas where most organizations are going to launch new initiatives in 2010, but you can expect to be hearing a lot about them, and you may want to be prepared to include them in your long-range thinking.
Social media and collaborative environments
These have been the subject of a great deal of hype, speculation, and sometimes outright derision in 2009. The fact is that they will be significant factors in both development and delivery of e-Learning, and sooner than many expect. Mark Oehlert has recently introduced the term “subject-matter networks” (SMNs), as opposed to “subject-matter experts” (SMEs), and it seems to me that he’s onto something significant. See his discussion at http://blogoehlert.typepad.com/eclippings/2009/12/subject-matter-networks-the-origin-story.html.
Google Wave is still in “preview” mode (in other words, not ready for prime time), and probably will be for most of 2010. However, instructional developers who are in the group using Wave have already started adopting it for project management and content creation. If you possibly can, get an invite and start figuring Wave out. In my opinion, it will be a significant environment for development and for delivery.
Mobile learning
This is another area that may have suffered a bit from over-exposure. Regardless, given the rapid adoption and evolution of smart phones, the move to mobile platforms as a significant learning environment is only a matter of time. One damper on progress has been the diversity and incompatibility of devices, and the lack of Flash on one of them, but this is becoming less of a problem as browser-based applications become available. By the end of 2010, m-Learning will be well-established as a delivery option.
Games and simulations
The emergence of Alternate Reality Games (ARGs) has revived my expectations for this modality. As demonstrated by the Zombie Apocalypse ARG at this year’s DevLearn Conference & Expo, it is possible to create engaging, effective game-based learning applications quickly, cheaply, and with a minimum of technology requirements. ARGs won’t be the answer to every learning need, but they will handle many situations for which designers have traditionally created conventional training.
Augmented Reality (AR)
This is my official long shot for 2010. Augmented Reality (demonstrated at DevLearn 2009 sessions and in the DemoFest) is a method for overlaying computer effects and digital data on the real world. Initial applications will likely be aimed at performance support and reference rather than learning. Toolkits for working with AR are already available, and many, if not most, are Open Source. One challenge at first was the need for specialized hardware (specifically, head set displays), but inventive developers have also found that the iPhone is a pretty good way to eliminate the need for geek goggles.
Keeping up for 2010
You can use some of the same tools you are already familiar with to keep up with these developments. Personally, I have found that judicious use of the List feature in Twitter is an excellent way to follow the conversations of people most involved in technology advances. In addition, it helps to monitor, if not participate in, the weekly #lrnchat on Twitter. Google Reader is also a helpful tool. Learning Solutions articles throughout 2010 will continue to support the 90% of our readers who do not actually implement any big changes in the way they do things, as well as the 10% who are working with and adopting new tools and techniques.
